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September 24, 2020

An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area


We assess the stability of the coefficient on the unemployment gap in various linear dynamic Phillips curve models. We allow the coefficient on the unemployment gap and the other variables in our model to be time-varying, so that we can monitor the importance of the Phillips curve over time. We compare the effects of different measures for inflation and inflation expectations on our estimation results. In our analysis, we use state space methods and adopt a practical approach to Bayesian estimation with feasible testing and diagnostic checking procedures. Empirical results are presented for the United States and the five largest euro area economies.

September 4, 2020

Stresstest huishoudens

Publication (in Dutch only)

Minstens 75.000 huishoudens binnen drie maanden in financiële problemen na inkomensverlies.

August 11, 2020

Forecasting wage growth and price inflation in the Netherlands with a BVAR model


This background document describes a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model to support the CPB short-term forecasts of wage growth and price inflation.

June 18, 2020

Kansrijk armoedebeleid

Publication (in Dutch only)

Gerichte maatregelen om armoede te verminderen zoals de verhoging van de bijstand, zijn effectief, maar kosten geld en vaak banen.