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August 27, 2020

Lage rente en de toekomst van pensioenen

Publication (in Dutch only)

Lage rente zorgt ook in het nieuwe pensioencontract voor lastige keuzes.

July 17, 2020

Trade policy analysis with a gravity model

Publication

In this CPB Background Document we investigate the use of the standard structural gravity model for trade policy analysis at the CPB. The model is intended for long term analyses of trade policy changes and is based on a simple general equilibrium framework. The model is useful despite its simplicity, because it has a good empirical fit. We investigate it by applying the gravity model to both a US trade war scenario and different Brexit scenarios.

June 2, 2020

Een nieuwe plaag voor de EMU

Publication (in Dutch only)

Bij de vormgeving van een Europese aanpak van de coronacrisis zijn solidariteit en welbegrepen eigenbelang belangrijke overwegingen.

April 14, 2020

De effecten van macroprudentieel beleid op de woningmarkt

Publication (in Dutch only)

Deze notitie verkent de economische effecten van een verdere aanscherping van twee leennormen voor hypotheken: loan-to-value (LTV) en loan-to-income (LTI). Deze leennormen zijn onderdeel van macroprudentieel beleid, dat zich richt op het beperken van systeemrisico’s in de financiële sector.

June 7, 2019

Estimates of the Financial Cycle for Advanced Economies

Publication

Until recently, macroeconomic theory provided at most a small role for the financial system to influence the real economy. This changed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the financial crisis which followed. Financial quantities such as outstanding credit and house prices are now believed to have real macroeconomic effects. In order to study these effects we need to quantify the influence of the financial system. The financial cycle, characterized by long period cyclical movements in financial variables, may provide such a measure.

June 7, 2019

Estimating the Impact of the Financial Cycle on Fiscal Policy

Publication

We investigate the impact of the financial cycle on the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

April 18, 2019

Consument met hoge hypotheek houdt bij crisis hand op knip

Publication (in Dutch only)

Door huishoudens met hoge hypotheekschulden zijn de totale uitgaven van huishoudens tijdens de recessie met 6% verminderd.

April 18, 2019

Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption

Publication

We estimate the contemporaneous relationship between household debt and consumption for the period 2006 to 2015. Using Dutch administrative data, we fi nd that the average consumption of households with high debt has decreased much more during the crisis than that of other households. We disentangle this into an effect through the availability of credit for direct consumption and an effect through household debt overhang.

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May 29, 2018

Towards an EMU banking union: three scenarios

Publication

This publication discusses the need for an EMU banking union and describes three possible transition scenarios. This is a translation of chapter 4 of the Dutch publication.

May 29, 2018

Capital position of banks in the EMU: an analysis of Banking Union scenarios

Publication

This CPB Background Document provides details of the simulations of shocks to the capital position of banks in the EMU that underpins the Financial Risk Report 2018 of the CPB. This involves investigating the potential impact of two legacy problems on the capital position of banks. These problems are the high amount of government debt, especially in Italy, and the high level of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets.