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Estimates of the Financial Cycle for Advanced Economies
PublicationUntil recently, macroeconomic theory provided at most a small role for the financial system to influence the real economy. This changed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the financial crisis which followed. Financial quantities such as outstanding credit and house prices are now believed to have real macroeconomic effects. In order to study these effects we need to quantify the influence of the financial system. The financial cycle, characterized by long period cyclical movements in financial variables, may provide such a measure. →
Consument met hoge hypotheek houdt bij crisis hand op knip
Publication (in Dutch only)Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption
PublicationWe estimate the contemporaneous relationship between household debt and consumption for the period 2006 to 2015. Using Dutch administrative data, we fi nd that the average consumption of households with high debt has decreased much more during the crisis than that of other households. We disentangle this into an effect through the availability of credit for direct consumption and an effect through household debt overhang. →
