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August 17, 2020

August projections 2020-2021

Forecast

Renewed growth in Dutch economy from third quarter onwards, but downturn will reverberate.

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August 17, 2020

Renewed growth in Dutch economy from third quarter onwards, but downturn will reverberate

Pressrelease

In the baseline projections, which assume no large-scale new physical contact restrictions are needed, the economy will shrink by 5% in 2020, followed by 3% growth in 2021. Unemployment will rise up to 7% in 2021. These are the conclusions of the concept Macro Economic Outlook (cMEV) 2021, recently published by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. These projections form the starting point for the Dutch Cabinet’s final decision-making process on the 2021 budget. They include the agreed policy up to the end of July. This means that the projections currently still assume the financial support policy to not be continued in October. The projected recovery is largely determined by the development of the pandemic. To do justice to this uncertainty, a scenario is also included in which large-scale physical contact restrictions will once again be implemented. Under such a scenario, the economy will shrink also in 2021, and unemployment will increase to 10%.

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August 11, 2020

Forecasting wage growth and price inflation in the Netherlands with a BVAR model

Publication

This background document describes a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model to support the CPB short-term forecasts of wage growth and price inflation.

June 17, 2020

Certificering budgettaire raming Wet excessief lenen bij eigen vennootschap

Publication (in Dutch only)

Deze CPB Notitie certificeert de raming van de opbrengst van de rekening-courantmaatregel in box 2 van de inkomstenbelasting. Het CPB acht de raming van de budgettaire effecten van de maatregel redelijk en neutraal. De raming kent een hoge mate van onzekerheid door onzekerheid over hoe aanmerkelijkbelanghouders op de maatregel zullen reageren.

June 16, 2020

June forecast 2020

Forecast

Unprecedented 6% decrease in GDP in 2020, followed by an increase of 3% next year. Unemployment would double, but, although public finances would be severely impacted, they would not enter the danger zone. Great uncertainty.

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June 16, 2020

Forecast June 2020, figures

Figure

Social distancing measures to counter the pandemic, in the Netherlands, have led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity of between 10% and 15%. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and the rate of recovery of the economy, the recently published June projections by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis contain various scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, which assumes a moderate recovery, GDP would decrease by 6% in 2020, followed by an increase of 3% next year. Unemployment would double, but, although public finances would be severely impacted, they would not enter the danger zone.

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June 16, 2020

Unprecedented 6% decrease in GDP in 2020, amid great uncertainty

Pressrelease

Social distancing measures to counter the pandemic, in the Netherlands, have led to an unprecedented decline in economic activity of between 10% and 15%. Because of the considerable uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and the rate of recovery of the economy, the recently published June projections by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis contain various scenarios. Under the baseline scenario, which assumes a moderate recovery, GDP would decrease by 6% in 2020, followed by an increase of 3% next year. Unemployment would double, but, although public finances would be severely impacted, they would not enter the danger zone. CPB’s Director Pieter Hasekamp: ‘Current uncertainty poses major dilemmas for the government. During the recovery phase, a controlled phase-out of government support measures would be desirable, but the extent to which the government can withdraw depends on the pace of economic recovery. Recovery could be accelerated by an internationally coordinated approach to the crisis, and by moving up investments where possible, such as in housing construction and energy transition.’

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March 26, 2020

Corona crisis scenarios

Forecast

Recession unavoidable, increase in government debt bearable.

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March 20, 2020

Thursday 26 March 9am corona crisis economic scenarios

Pressrelease

On Thursday 26 March at 9am, CPB will publish scenarios on the impact of the corona crisis on the Dutch economy and public finances.

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March 17, 2020

Forecast 17 March 2020 (CEP 2020 complete)

Forecast

March 26, CPB publishes new corona-scenarios (in Dutch).

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