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April 18, 2019

Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption

Publication

We estimate the contemporaneous relationship between household debt and consumption for the period 2006 to 2015. Using Dutch administrative data, we fi nd that the average consumption of households with high debt has decreased much more during the crisis than that of other households. We disentangle this into an effect through the availability of credit for direct consumption and an effect through household debt overhang.

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February 19, 2019

Do zero and sign restricted SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks in the euro area?

Publication

This research re-examines the findings of the existing literature on the effects of unconventional monetary policy.

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June 5, 2018

A Review on ESBies - The senior tranche of sovereign bond-backed securities

Publication

Safe assets, assets with low risk and high liquidity, are the cornerstone for modern financial systems. The biggest holders of safe assets are banks, which need to hold safe assets to meet capital and liquidity requirements. Safe assets also provide high-quality, liquid collateral for banks’ repo transactions. Besides, safe assets provide benchmarks for the price formation of other financial assets.

May 29, 2018

Towards an EMU banking union: three scenarios

Publication

This publication discusses the need for an EMU banking union and describes three possible transition scenarios. This is a translation of chapter 4 of the Dutch publication.

March 22, 2018

Forecasting long-term interest rates

Publication

The long-term interest rate in the Euro area is an important exogenous input in CPB macro-econometric models to project the world economy and the Dutch economy, so it is important to have a reliable projection for it. However, there were concerns about the CPB practice of forecasting the long-term interest rate, especially over the inconsistency of long-term interest rate projections in the short and medium term. Therefore, this document compares the old CPB practice with several alternative forecasting methods for long-term interest rates, and evaluates these methods.

February 6, 2018

The effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area

Publication

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field.

August 23, 2017

Assets and liabilities of Dutch non-financial firms

Publication

The main purpose of this document is to assess the financial situation of non-financial firms. In particular, the document provides answers to two questions. Are there financial fragilities in Dutch non-financial firms? If yes, for which particular type of firms?

June 6, 2017

CPB Risicorapportage Financiële Markten 2017

Publication (in Dutch only)

Rapportage voor de Tweede Kamer over de internationale en nationale macro-economische ontwikkelingen in samenhang met ontwikkelingen in de financiële sector.