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February 17, 2020

Estimation of the Financial Cycle with a Rank-Reduced Multivariate State-Space Model

Publication

We propose a model-based method to estimate a unique financial cycle based on a rank-restricted multivariate state-space model. This permits us to use mixed-frequency data, allowing for longer sample periods. In our model the financial cycle dynamics are captured by an unobserved trigonometric cycle component.

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February 13, 2020

Are the savings of Dutch households optimal?

Publication

Dutch households (implicitly) have an unusual mix of assets. Particularly their high level of mortgage debts and pension entitlements stand out in an international context. In this paper we examine how Dutch household wealth compares to the theoretically optimum. In general we find that Dutch households do not  save too much. At retirement age, the median optimum assets are roughly the same as the median observed net assets of Dutch households. However  the differences between households can be substantial. in particular have more assets than is optimal according to the model. Their observed wealth remains constant or sometimes even increases after retirement.

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June 7, 2019

Estimates of the Financial Cycle for Advanced Economies

Publication

Until recently, macroeconomic theory provided at most a small role for the financial system to influence the real economy. This changed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the financial crisis which followed. Financial quantities such as outstanding credit and house prices are now believed to have real macroeconomic effects. In order to study these effects we need to quantify the influence of the financial system. The financial cycle, characterized by long period cyclical movements in financial variables, may provide such a measure.

June 7, 2019

Estimating the Impact of the Financial Cycle on Fiscal Policy

Publication

We investigate the impact of the financial cycle on the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

March 29, 2018

De verscheidenheid van vermogens van huishoudens

Publication (in Dutch only)

De verschillen tussen huishoudens zijn groot als het gaat om vermogens en schulden. In deze notitie brengen we de heterogeniteit tussen huishoudens in kaart. We bekijken de verschillende componenten in samenhang, inclusief de pensioenvermogens. We hebben de huishoudens ingedeeld naar leeftijd, naar arbeidssituatie (werknemer of zelfstandig) en naar woonsituatie (eigen woning of huur).

March 8, 2018

Voorspellen van de werkloosheid. Kan het beter?

Publication (in Dutch only)

Dit document beschrijft verschillende routes om de CPB-kortetermijnramingen van de werkloosheid te ondersteunen. Op basis van recente wetenschappelijke literatuur is onderzocht of de werkloosheid nauwkeuriger geraamd kan worden met tijdreeksmodellen. Daarnaast besteden we aandacht aan de kwaliteit van voorspellingen in de buurt van omslagpunten.

March 9, 2017

Productivity Slowdown - Evidence for the Netherlands

Publication

This paper analyses how The Netherlands compares to other countries in terms of the productivity slowdown. It also includes a comparison of different sectors and tests possible explanatory variables.

December 27, 2016

Accounting for the Business Cycle Reduces the Estimated Losses from Systemic Banking Crises

Publication

We re-estimate the e ffects of systemic banking crises in industrialised countries reported by Cerra and Saxena with a model that includes transitory business cycle shocks.

November 2, 2015

An estimated DSGE model for the Netherlands with unemployment

Publication

The Lucas critique is an important problem for economic policy analysis.

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June 11, 2015

Are the Long-Run Unemployed on the Margins of the Dutch Labor Market?

Publication

Since the Great Recessions many countries have seen an increase in the number of long-run unemployed.

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