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June 7, 2019

Estimates of the Financial Cycle for Advanced Economies

Publication

Until recently, macroeconomic theory provided at most a small role for the financial system to influence the real economy. This changed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the financial crisis which followed. Financial quantities such as outstanding credit and house prices are now believed to have real macroeconomic effects. In order to study these effects we need to quantify the influence of the financial system. The financial cycle, characterized by long period cyclical movements in financial variables, may provide such a measure.

June 7, 2019

Estimating the Impact of the Financial Cycle on Fiscal Policy

Publication

We investigate the impact of the financial cycle on the effectiveness of fiscal policy.

June 4, 2019

Risicorapportage Financiële markten 2019

Publication (in Dutch only)

Er kan nog meer worden gedaan om de risico’s van centrale tegenpartijen (CCP's), omvangrijke Europese financiële instellingen, te verkleinen.

May 29, 2018

Towards an EMU banking union: three scenarios

Publication

This publication discusses the need for an EMU banking union and describes three possible transition scenarios. This is a translation of chapter 4 of the Dutch publication.

May 29, 2018

Capital position of banks in the EMU: an analysis of Banking Union scenarios

Publication

This CPB Background Document provides details of the simulations of shocks to the capital position of banks in the EMU that underpins the Financial Risk Report 2018 of the CPB. This involves investigating the potential impact of two legacy problems on the capital position of banks. These problems are the high amount of government debt, especially in Italy, and the high level of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets.