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August 25, 2020

CPB World Trade Monitor June 2020

Figure

World trade rebounds in June with a strong catch-up growth of 7.6% compared to May.

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August 25, 2020

A rebound in world trade

Pressrelease

World trade rebounds in June with a strong catch-up growth of 7.6% compared to May. There was growth in almost all countries, except in Japan, where imports fell even further (-2.6%). Also in China and Eastern-Europe there is a fallback in exports, and in Africa and the Middle East imports and exports fell somewhat further. This brings the fall in world trade in the second quarter of 2020 to -12.5%, on top of the -2.7% in the first quarter. Industrial production also continues to recover, with 4.8% growth in June (compared to May). With this, global production is still 8% lower than at the end of last year.

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July 24, 2020

CPB World Trade Monitor May 2020

Figure

A further decline in world trade in May, but also signs of recovery in the eurozone.

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July 24, 2020

A further decline in world trade in May, but also signs of recovery in the eurozone

Pressrelease

World trade fell 1.1% in May. This means that the total decline in 2020 up till May is 17%. This follows from the new release of the World Trade Monitor of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). This means that world trade has decreased by around 17% in 2020. The coronavirus pandemic has played a major role in this. All over the world, both production and consumption have declined due to various measures taken to limit the spread of the virus. This has a great impact on international trade.

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July 17, 2020

Trade policy analysis with a gravity model

Publication

In this CPB Background Document we investigate the use of the standard structural gravity model for trade policy analysis at the CPB. The model is intended for long term analyses of trade policy changes and is based on a simple general equilibrium framework. The model is useful despite its simplicity, because it has a good empirical fit. We investigate it by applying the gravity model to both a US trade war scenario and different Brexit scenarios.

July 14, 2020

Certificering budgettaire raming Wet implementatie richtlijnen elektronische handel

Publication (in Dutch only)

Deze notitie certificeert de geraamde opbrengst van de fiscale beleidsmaatregel uit het wetsvoorstel ‘Wet implementatie richtlijnen elektronische handel’. Het CPB concludeert dat de raming door het ministerie van Financiën redelijk en neutraal is. De mate van onzekerheid schat het CPB in als hoog, voornamelijk vanwege de onzekere toekomstige ontwikkeling van de elektronische handel.

June 25, 2020

CPB World Trade Monitor April 2020

Figure

The CPB World Trade Monitor shows a historical decline in the world trade volume in April of 12.1% compared with March.

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June 25, 2020

Unprecedented decline in world trade in April

Pressrelease

The CPB World Trade Monitor shows a historical decline in the world trade volume in April of 12.1% compared with March. Exports fell back significantly in several regions: -23% for both the eurozone and the US, -21% for Latin-America, -14% Japan, and -11% for other advanced economies. Imports declined most in Latin-America (-18%), the eurozone (-17%), the US (-11%), and other advanced economies (-15%). The growth in world trade during the months February to April compared with the preceding three months was -7.2%. None of the regions showed an increase, and the eurozone showed the most negative development (-13% exports, -11% imports).

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June 2, 2020

Risicorapportage Financiële markten 2020

Publication (in Dutch only)

Coronacrisis legt kwetsbaarheden financiële systeem bloot.

May 25, 2020

CPB World Trade Monitor March 2020

Figure

The CPB World Trade Monitor shows that the volume of world trade decreased 1.4% in March 2020.

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