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April 21, 2021

The effect of the pandemic and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on household consumption

Publication

Most of the short-run decline in consumption during the first wave was a voluntary response to the health risks.

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March 31, 2021

Projections March 2021 (CEP 2021)

Forecast

Economic recovery in sight, but coronavirus effects linger on. In the baseline projections the economy is expected to grow by over 2% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022.

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March 31, 2021

Projections March 2021 (CEP 2021), figures

Figure

After the decrease in GDP that was caused by the second wave of the coronavirus, economic recovery is gradually gaining momentum in the second quarter. Growth is projected to accelerate in the second half of the year, increasing GDP by 2.2% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. By the end of 2021, it will be above the level of late 2019 again. These projections are based on the government's current policy intentions according to which financial support measures will expire at the end of June. Consumption will increase strongly once shops and restaurants fully reopen and consumer fears of becoming infected diminish as more people are vaccinated. The sharp increase in savings during the coronavirus-induced recession will allow for a strong growth in consumption. Investments will show a positive response to the increase in sales and the more favourable revenue expectations, supported by low financing costs. However, investment growth will be dampened by additional bankruptcies in certain sectors after termination of the support policy and as a result of the damage to the balance sheet suffered by companies during the virus outbreak.

March 31, 2021

Actualisatie Verkenning middellange termijn 2022-2025 (maart 2021)

Forecast (in Dutch only)

Naast het Centraal Economisch Plan 2021 is vandaag een actualisatie van de middellangetermijn- verkenning gepubliceerd. Deze kan worden gebruikt voor de doorrekening van het regeerakkoord. De bbp-groei is 2,0% per jaar in 2022-2025.

March 31, 2021

Actualisatie MLT-raming maart 2021, cijfers

Figure (in Dutch only)

Naast het Centraal Economisch Plan 2021 is vandaag een actualisatie van de middellangetermijnverkenning gepubliceerd. Deze biedt een doorkijk naar 2022-2025 en kan worden gebruikt voor de doorrekening van het regeerakkoord.

March 31, 2021

Fan Charts March 2021

Page

The figures present fan charts around the CEP 2021 point forecasts for GDP growth, HICP inflation, unemployment and general government financial balance.

March 31, 2021

Economic recovery in sight, but coronavirus effects linger on

Pressrelease

In the baseline projections, which assume that vaccination rates in the Netherlands and other European countries will quickly increase and lockdown restrictions can be phased out, the economy is expected to grow by over 2% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. Unemployment has remained remarkably low until now, partly due to ample support measures, but is expected to rise to 5% and subsequently decrease to 4.5% over the course of next year. This results from the new economic forecast for 2021 and 2022, published on 31 March by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

December 3, 2020

Column - Recepten voor beleid

Publication (in Dutch only)

Ik kook graag. En dan bij voorkeur op zijn Italiaans. Bakken is een heel ander verhaal. Waarom vertel ik dit? Het verschil tussen koken en bakken schoot me te binnen naar aanleiding van een recente sessie met bestuurders over scenarioplanning.

November 26, 2020

Projections November 2020

Forecast

Economy will recover in 2021, provided coronavirus is under control

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November 26, 2020

Projections November 2020, figures

Figure

Under the baseline projections, which assume the coronavirus will be under control in both the Netherlands and other European countries in the first half of next year, the Dutch economy will grow in 2021 by nearly 3%, following a contraction of over 4% in 2020. Unemployment will increase to more than 6% in 2021, affecting particularly young people, employees on a flexible employment contract and self-employed independents. The currently projected economic growth rates are slightly higher for 2020 and slightly lower for 2021 than those in the projections published on 15 September (Prinsjesdag), due to the unexpectedly stronger recovery in the third quarter of 2020 and the second corona wave, respectively.