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September 24, 2020

An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area

Publication

We assess the stability of the coefficient on the unemployment gap in various linear dynamic Phillips curve models. We allow the coefficient on the unemployment gap and the other variables in our model to be time-varying, so that we can monitor the importance of the Phillips curve over time. We compare the effects of different measures for inflation and inflation expectations on our estimation results. In our analysis, we use state space methods and adopt a practical approach to Bayesian estimation with feasible testing and diagnostic checking procedures. Empirical results are presented for the United States and the five largest euro area economies.

August 17, 2020

August projections 2020-2021

Forecast

Renewed growth in Dutch economy from third quarter onwards, but downturn will reverberate.

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December 18, 2019

Forecast December 2019

Forecast

Economic growth is slowing down in the Netherlands due to the decline in global growth and, to a lesser extent, the issues around nitrogen and PFASs.

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August 15, 2019

Table Main Economic Indicators 2017-2020

Forecast

Table Main Economic Indicators 2017-2020 of the upcoming Macro Economic Outlook 2020 (up to and including 2020), to be published on 17 September 2019.

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December 19, 2018

Forecast December 2018

Forecast

Economy is running well, peak is over; International risks remain large.

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December 11, 2018

Scenarios and forecasts

Theme

One of CPB’s main tasks is that of making projections about short-term, medium-term and long-term economic developments in the Netherlands. The short-term projections concern the current and the subsequent year. The medium term covers a period of 4 to 5 years (roughly one cabinet term), and the long term can cover 20 to 40 years or even longer.

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