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November 26, 2020

Projections November 2020

Forecast

Economy will recover in 2021, provided coronavirus is under control

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November 26, 2020

Projections November 2020, figures

Figure

Under the baseline projections, which assume the coronavirus will be under control in both the Netherlands and other European countries in the first half of next year, the Dutch economy will grow in 2021 by nearly 3%, following a contraction of over 4% in 2020. Unemployment will increase to more than 6% in 2021, affecting particularly young people, employees on a flexible employment contract and self-employed independents. The currently projected economic growth rates are slightly higher for 2020 and slightly lower for 2021 than those in the projections published on 15 September (Prinsjesdag), due to the unexpectedly stronger recovery in the third quarter of 2020 and the second corona wave, respectively.

November 26, 2020

Actualisatie Verkenning middellange termijn 2022-2025 (november 2020)

Forecast (in Dutch only)

Corona dempt groei productiviteit en arbeidsaanbod op middellange termijn.

November 26, 2020

Actualisatie MLT-raming november 2020, cijfers

Figure (in Dutch only)

De economie herstelt geleidelijk van de corona-recessie.

September 15, 2020

Projections September 2020 (MEV 2021)

Forecast

Extension of support package reduces increase in unemployment, but also leads to greater budget deficit.

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September 15, 2020

Actualisatie Middellangetermijnverkenning 2022-2025

Forecast (in Dutch only)

Corona dempt groei productiviteit en arbeidsaanbod.

September 15, 2020

Schokproef overheidsfinanciën 2020

Publication (in Dutch only)

Dit achtergronddocument beschrijft het doel van een schokproef voor de overheidsfinanciën, geeft een korte introductie in het model CRASH en toont de uitkomsten van een schokproef bij drie verschillende economische scenario’s in de periode 2020-2025. De cijfers in dit achtergronddocument zijn gebaseerd op de MEV 2021 (basispad).

September 15, 2020

CRASH - A Simulation Model for Extreme Events

Publication

What is the impact of extreme external shocks, such as the Great Recession, upon Dutch public finances? The question is very challenging, given that such shocks are very different from mild disruptions of the economy and unique in many respects. This document constructs a model to calculate scenarios of such external shocks. The model includes households, firms, pension funds, banks and the government.

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September 15, 2020

Projections September 2020 (MEV 2021), figures

Figure

In the baseline projections, which assume no large-scale new physical contact restrictions will be needed, the economy shrinks by 5% in 2020, followed by over 3% growth in 2021. Unemployment will rise to 6% in 2021. This is concluded in the recently published Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Economic growth is projected to be slightly higher than in the preliminary projections published in August, and unemployment will be half a percentage point lower in 2021. This is due to decisions by the Dutch Cabinet, which include an extension of the support and recovery policy. As a result, the budget deficit will be higher than previously estimated: 0.5% of GDP higher in 2020 and 1% in 2021. Public finances, however, will not be in jeopardy.

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September 15, 2020

Actualisatie MLT-raming september 2020, cijfers

Figure (in Dutch only)

De corona-uitbraak leidt tot een lager bbp-niveau in 2025 dan in de verkenning van maart. Het bbp-volume in 2025 is in de basisverkenning 4% neerwaarts herzien ten opzichte van die in maart; in het dieperdalscenario is dat zelfs 9%. Dit komt zowel door de neerwaartse herziening van het trendmatig arbeidsaanbod als door de neerwaartse herziening van de trendmatige arbeidsproductiviteit. De neerwaartse herziening van het arbeidsaanbod komt door de herziening van de bevolkingsprognose. De corona-uitbraak heeft een negatief effect op de immigratie. De neerwaartse herziening van de trendmatige arbeidsproductiviteitsgroei vloeit voort uit een zwakkere groei van de kapitaalgoederenvoorraad en uit een lagere stijging van de multifactorproductiviteit als gevolg van de corona-uitbraak.