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July 17, 2020

Trade policy analysis with a gravity model

Publication

In this CPB Background Document we investigate the use of the standard structural gravity model for trade policy analysis at the CPB. The model is intended for long term analyses of trade policy changes and is based on a simple general equilibrium framework. The model is useful despite its simplicity, because it has a good empirical fit. We investigate it by applying the gravity model to both a US trade war scenario and different Brexit scenarios.

October 19, 2018

Estimating migration changes from the EU’s free movement of people principle

Publication

We estimate the impact of the free movement of people (FMP) principle on bilateral intra-EU migration stocks using a gravity model. Employing a combination of the World Bank and the UN’s global migration databases, with observations between 1960 and 2015, allows us to analyse the impact of the FMP for most EU member states.

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July 6, 2018

Trade Wars: Economic impacts of US tariff increases and retaliations, an international perspective

Publication

"Effect trade conflict limited, escalation only has losers". This background document provides information on the economic consequences of the current trade dispute between the US and several countries that announced retaliatory packages or filed them already with the WTO.

June 9, 2016

Brexit costs for the Netherlands arise from reduced trade

Publication

By 2030, the costs for the Netherlands could run up to 1.2% of GDP, or 10 billion euros.

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