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CPBs short-term forecasts June 2011: Economic growth is picking up somewhat

This document is in dutch only!

Short-term forecast, 21 June 2011

The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 2% this year. For next year, an increase of GDP of 1¾% is projected. Unemployment seems likely to fall further to an average of 4% in the coming year. The EMU deficit will diminish quickly, from 5.4% of GDP in 2010 to 2.2% of GDP in 2012.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

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The table 'Extended main economic indicators'

International items
 2009201020112012
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

-13.6

11.0

7

6

Import price goods (%)

-7.5

7.4

8 1/2

1/2

Export price competitors (%)

-3.0

6.0

5

1 1/4

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

61.5

79.5

116

119

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.33

1.43

1.45

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.7

3.0

3 1/2

3 3/4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2009201020112012
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

-3.9

1.8

2

1 3/4

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

572.0

591.1

610

635

Private consumption (%)

-2.5

0.3

1/2

1/2

Public demand (%)

4.0

0.8

-1/4

-3/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-18.2

-1.5

5 3/4

4 1/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

-9.2

12.8

6 3/4

5 3/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

-10.5

8.0

5 3/4

3 1/2

re-exports (%)

-7.9

17.2

7 3/4

7 3/4

Imports of goods (%)

-10.3

11.7

5 1/4

4 1/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2009201020112012
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

-5.3

4.4

3 1/4

1/2

Price competitiveness (%)

4.2

-0.8

0

3/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.2

1.3

2 1/4

2 1/4

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

1.0

0.9

2 1/2

2 1/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

-0.2

1.6

1 1/4

2 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.9

1.4

2

2 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

2.7

1.0

1 1/2

2 1/2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.0

1.4

3

3 1/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

32500

32500

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

1.9

-1.4

-1 1/4

-2 3/4

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

1.8

-0.4

-1

-1 1/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2009201020112012
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16530

16615

16695

16770

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8772

8748

8735

8815

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8445

8358

8370

8470

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

327

390

365

345

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-1.1

-0.5

3/4

1 1/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.3

-1/4

1

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.1

-1.0

1/4

1 1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

3.7

4.5

4 1/4

4

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

4.8

5.4

5

4 3/4

Market sector
 2009201020112012
Production (%)

-5.4

1.8

2 3/4

2

Labour productivity (%)

-3.1

3.7

2 1/4

1 1/4

Employment (labour years) (%)

-2.4

-1.9

1/2

1

Price gross value added (%)

2.6

1.6

-1/2

1

Real labour costs (%)

-0.6

-0.2

3 3/4

2 1/4

Labour share in
enterprise income (level in %)

80.9

77.9

78 3/4

79 1/2

Profit share (of
domestic production)
(level in %)

7.7

9.4

8 3/4

8 3/4

General government
 2009201020112012
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.4

-5.4

-3.7

-2.2

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

60.8

62.8

64.1

64.5

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.2

38.5

38.9

39.1

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2012

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2012.

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