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CPB's short-term forecasts June 2015

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Short-term forecast, 10 June 2015

The recovery of the Dutch economy is continuing; GDP is projected to grow by 2.0% this year and by 2.1% in 2016. This positive image is in line with developments elsewhere in Europe, with growth figures for the Netherlands at the upper end of the range. This is the second forecast made in 2015.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Fan Charts

Take a look at the Fan Charts.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2013-2016

International items
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Relevant world trade volume
goods and services (%)

2.2

4.0

4.0

5.2

Export price competitors
(goods and services,
non-commodities, %)

-3.2

-0.8

9.9

1.8

Crude oil price
(dollar per barrel)

107.1

97.9

62.3

69.5

Exchange rate
(dollar per euro)

1.33

1.33

1.10

1.10

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

2.0

1.5

0.3

0.3

GDP and demand (volume)
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

-0.7

0.9

2.0

2.1

Consumption households (%)

-1.6

0.1

1.8

1.6

Consumption general
government (%)

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.9

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

-5.3

2.7

4.8

4.5

Exports of goods and
services (%)

2.0

4.0

3.0

5.2

Imports of goods and
services (%)

0.8

4.0

3.0

5.6

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Price gross domestic product (%)

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

Export price goods and
services (non-energy, %)

0.3

-0.2

2.2

1.9

Import price goods (%)

-1.5

-3.1

-1.8

4.1

Inflation, harmonised index
of consumer prices (hicp, %)

2.6

0.3

0.2

1.2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.2

1.0

1.2

1.6

Purchasing power, static,
median all households (%)

-1.3

1.4

1.0

-0.3

Labour market
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Labour force (%)

0.8

-0.4

0.6

0.9

Active labour force (%)

-0.8

-0.6

1.1

1.3

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

647

660

625

600

Unemployed rate
(% of the labour force)

7.3

7.4

7.0

6.7

Market sector
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Production (%)

-1.1

2.1

2.6

2.9

Labour productivity
(labour years, %)

0.3

1.6

1.7

1.4

Employment (labour years, %)

-1.5

0.4

0.9

1.5

Compensation per employee (%)

2.6

1.9

0.7

2.8

Labour share in enterprise
income (level in %)

81.4

80.4

77.7

77.9

Other items
  2013 2014 2015 2016
Private savings (% of
disposable household income)

0.6

2.0

2.4

1.2

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.5

9.8

10.8

10.8

Public sector
  2013 2014 2015 2016
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-2.3

-2.3

-1.9

-0.8

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

68.6

68.5

67.6

65.4

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

37.2

37.9

37.4

38.1

The wage-rate market sector, labour-income share as well as private savings are biased upward for 2014, 2015 and 2016, due to the measure to limit the use of a so-called Stamrecht bv (severance pay insurance fund). Severance payments will be paid directly to the person involved, instead of into such a fund. After the revision of the National Accounts, severance payments are registered as employers' social security contributions. This translates into a non-recurring increase of the wage rate in 2014 which affects the development of the wages in the private sector well over 0.5% points.

The revision of the Labour Force Survey (Statistics Netherlands) leads to higher unemployment (47,000 in 2013) and a lower active labour force (minus 80,000 in 2013). Therefore, the unemployment rate increases by 0.6 percentage point. In the other years the differences are similar.

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2016

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2016.

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