Business Estates Monitor, regional projections 2010-2020
Regionale vraag naar bedrijfslocaties: na 2010 sterkere groei van de vraag naar speciale kantoorlocaties; groei van vraag naar bedrijfslocaties zwakt dan af
Planning procedures may well take several years and require long-term forecasts of future land use. In response to a request by the national government, CPB’s project BedrijfsLocatieMonitor (Business Estates Monitor) aims at building a modelling system for monitoring and forecasting regional trends in industrial land use.
This working paper constitutes an update of the November 1998 book issued by the BedrijfsLocatieMonitor, in which a first set of regional scenarios for land use on industrial estates was presented for 1998-2010 (CPB, 1998, in Dutch). The update includes an extension of the scenarios up to 2020, and new, separate results for the country’s 7 most urbanised regions. In addition, the modelling system was upgraded by comparing the underlying data to databases held by regional authorities.
This assessment changed the results for 2010, that were published before. Next, future demand is viewed in relation to current plans for new areas for economic development according to regional policy. Discrepancies may indicate future excess demand or future excess supply, and require special attention by regional policy makers.
The paper summarises the improvements made to data and models, and presents new results. In general, conclusions published in december 1998 still hold. Quantitative results of the BedrijfsLocatieMonitor should be regarded from a comparative, multi-regional perspective. However, without contextual information concerning, for instance, current spatial policy and characteristics of the regional economy, care should be taken when drawing bold conclusions for individual regions.