The CPB World Trade Monitor shows that the volume of world trade decreased 1.2% in January 2020, having increased 0.4% in December (initial estimate 0.3%). Note: The CPB publishes a World Trade Monitor every month on behalf of the European Commission. It takes two months for the figures to become available. This monitor therefore does not show the current situation, but the situation in January. In this month, the spread of the coronavirus was still limited and the consequences of the coronavirus very uncertain.
Developments in global international trade and industrial production January 2020:
- World trade volume decreased 1.2% month-on-month (growth was 0.4% in December, initial estimate 0.3%).
- World trade momentum was -0.8% (non-annualised; -0.4% in December, unchanged from initial estimate).
- World industrial production decreased 4.8% month-on-month (having increased 0.2% in December, initial estimate 0.0%).
- World industrial production momentum was -1.1% (non-annualised; 0.2% in December, initial estimate 0.3%).
The next release of the CPB World Trade Monitor is scheduled for 24 April 2020, 15:00 hours.
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Read also the CPB Background Document 'The CPB World Trade Monitor: technical description'.
In September 2016 (starting with the July 2016 monitor) the WTM base year has been moved from 2005 to 2010. Clarification of the procedure and its outcomes is given in the downloadable appendix (CPB Memo 'Change of base year WTM').
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The World Trade Monitor is partially financed by DG ECFIN (Directorate General of Economic and Monetary Affairs of the Economic Commission).
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Yes. All trade flows in the WTM are gross.
No. WTM trade flows are based on monthly Customs data and include goods trade only. Cross-border goods flows measured this way generally do not coincide with goods trade as reported in national accounts.
Volume series are series in constant dollar prices, that is base year prices. In the base year, the year total of volume equals the year total of nominal value and the year average of the price index equals 100. The base year currently is 2010. (See technical note Change of base year. (appendix)) At the level of individual countries, either import/export volume is computed from import/export value and import/export price or price is computed from import/export value and import/export, depending on the availability and reliability of data. Aggregate (regional) series in constant prices are the sums of country series in constant prices; aggregate prices are computed from aggregate value and aggregate volume.
See Table 2.1 (industrial production) and Table 2.2 (international trade) in the Background Document 'Technical Description'.