June 13, 2005

Can we afford to live longer in better health?

Langer leven in betere gezondheid lost vergrijzingsprobleem niet op

Press release
De levensverwachting blijft onverminderd toenemen, terwijl de gezondheid van de oudere bevolking gestaag verbetert: goed nieuws voor al diegenen die lang willen leven in goede gezondheid. Langer leven in goede gezondheid blijkt echter op zichzelf geen oplossing te bieden voor de budgettaire druk die ontstaat door een vergrijzende bevolking.

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Contacts

Photo of Ed Westerhout
Ed Westerhout +31 6 52486152 Read more
Dick Morks Read more

 It pays particular attention to three novel insights: (i) a large part of health care spending relates to time to death rather than to age: (ii) life expectancy may increase much faster than current demographic projections suggest, and (iii) the average health status may continue to improve in the future. It adopts a generational accounting model that incorporates health care costs during the last years of life, decomposed into an acute health care component and a long-term care component.

The projections show that gains in life expectancy increase age-related expenditure; better health has the opposite effect. Combined, these trends reduce health care expenditure and increase pension expenditure. Their joint effect upon public finance is rather modest, however. Hence, the assessment of public finances in most EU15 countries does not change: even if a faster increase in life expectancy should combine with an improvement in health, current fiscal and social security institutions are unsustainable.

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Contacts

Photo of Ed Westerhout
Ed Westerhout +31 6 52486152 Read more
Frank Pellikaan Read more