Economic Outlook 2008-2011.
Economic growth is 1¾% per year in this scenario. The growth rate of labour supply decreases due to ageing, the unemployment rate remains at the 2007-level. Labour productivity increases by 1½% per year, partly due to an increase in the capital intensity.
Assuming no policy changes, the EMU-balance in 2011 is 1% of GDP. Higher tax income is used to increase the EMU-balance. It is expected that the health-care premiums rise in the next years in order to cover the budget. Additional policy measures of about 1½% of GDP are needed to make the budget sustainable, i.e. to generate a constant net benefit of the government for all current and future generations.
This publication is in Dutch.