April 19, 2004

Four futures for energy markets and climate change

CPB en RIVM: Toekomstig energiegebruik leidt niet tot tekorten, maar wel tot klimaatproblemen

Press release
De komende decennia zullen er voldoende voorraden aan gas en olie zijn, ook al neemt de vraag naar energie toe. Zorgen over een aanstaande uitputting van de fossiele voorraden zijn daarom niet terecht. Wel zal de verbranding van fossiele brandstoffen via de emissies van broeikasgassen tot meer klimaatverandering leiden.

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Paul Veenendaal

In this study, we explore the next four decades. Although the report focuses on Europe, global aspects of energy use and climate change play a significant role.

The next decades, global reserves of oil and natural gas will likely be sufficient to meet the growing demand. Therefore, there is no need to worry about a looming depletion of natural energy resources. The use of fossil energy carriers will, however, affect climate because of the emissions of greenhouse gasses. In order to mitigate global increases of temperature, emissions of greenhouse gasses should be reduced. Developing countries should contribute to that effort. On the one hand they will be major emitters in the near future, on the other hand they have the low-cost abatement options.


Johannes Bollen
T. Manders
Machiel Mulder