This document is in Dutch, there is no English translation.
April 18, 2019

Consument met hoge hypotheek houdt bij crisis hand op knip

Door huishoudens met hoge hypotheekschulden zijn de totale uitgaven van huishoudens tijdens de recessie met 6% verminderd. Dit geldt in het bijzonder voor huishoudens waarvan het huis ‘onder water’ stond. Dit komt waarschijnlijk doordat deze huishoudens onzekerder zijn over hun toekomst en daardoor minder uitgeven. Dit blijkt uit de zojuist verschenen publicaties 'Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption' en 'Do house prices matter for household consumption?' van het Centraal Planbureau (CPB).
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De 2 publicaties zijn hieronder te downloaden in Gerelateerde publicaties. Bij het CPB verscheen ook een samenvatting van de 2 publicaties: de notitie 'Huishoudens met hoge hypotheek bezuinigen tijdens  een recessie' (hiernaast te downloaden). 

Deze notitie is ook verschenen in economenvakblad ESB van 18 april 2019.

April 18, 2019

Disentangling the effect of household debt on consumption

We estimate the contemporaneous relationship between household debt and consumption for the period 2006 to 2015. Using Dutch administrative data, we fi nd that the average consumption of households with high debt has decreased much more during the crisis than that of other households. We disentangle this into an effect through the availability of credit for direct consumption and an effect through household debt overhang.
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On the micro level, the consumption drop is the sharpest for the households who are less able or willing to fi nance one-off high consumption with new debts after the crisis. On the macro level, however, the drop in consumption of households who
have negative home equity for a longer period had a much bigger impact on macro consumption, because their number sharply increased during the crisis. Our results suggest that precautionary savings motives among the highly indebted households contributed most to the consumption decline during the crisis.

 

Contacts

Foto Rutger Teulings
Rutger Teulings +31 6 46988073 Read more
Foto Bram Wouterse
Bram Wouterse +31 6 46900564 Read more
Kan Ji Read more
April 18, 2019

Do house prices matter for household consumption?

To what extent do large drops in house prices drive household consumption? Using a large panel of Dutch households over the period 2007 to 2014, when house price dropped 27%, we find a significantly positive relationship between house prices and household (durable) consumption.
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 A 10% change in home values leads to a 0.7% change in household consumption for homeowners, but a negligible response for renters. Young and middle-aged homeowners have larger consumption sensitivities to house prices than old households. Delving into the underlying channels, a pure wealth effect can explain part of the consumption sensitivity to house prices. Furthermore, we find strong evidence that house prices affect consumption through the borrowing collateral (and precautionary saving) channel.

Contacts

Lu Zhang +31 6 27263154 Read more

Contacts

Foto Rutger Teulings
Rutger Teulings +31 6 46988073 Read more
Lu Zhang +31 6 27263154 Read more

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