February 28, 2013

Table Main Economic Indicators 2011-2014 (28 February 2013)

Dutch budget deficit 2013 and 2014 higher than 3%

Press release
CPB expects a budget deficit of 3.3% for 2013 and 3.4% for 2014. Despite a slight recovery later on in the year, GDP volume in 2013 will fall by 0.5%. For 2014, the economy is expected to grow again by 1%. Unemployment in 2013 will increase by 90,000 people to 560,000 and for 2014 this will be 575,000.
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For 2013, projected economic growth has not been adjusted compared to last December’s projections. Private consumption in 2013 will decline sharply (-1½ percent), as it did last year. Housing investments are projected to decline even more – by 7%. In contrast, the export of domestically produced goods shows signs of recovery. Despite this fact, GDP volume will fall for the second consecutive year, by 0.5%, following the drop of 0.9% in 2012. This causes employment to decline again and unemployment therefore to rise further, to 6¼ per cent of the labour force.

The projected recovery for 2013 will become evident in the year-on-year figures for 2014, at which time growth will return, by 1%. The limited recovery largely will be due to a more positive development of the global economy under less elaborate deficit-reducing measures than those in effect for 2013. Domestic spending, however, is not expected to contribute to this growth and, despite this limited growth, unemployment will continue to increase up to 6½ per cent.

In 2013, the sizeable deficit-reducing measures will cause the budget deficit to increase by 0.7% of GDP to 3.3%, with a subsequent marginal increase up to 3.4% in 2014. The Maastricht criterion of a 3% maximum deficit will be exceeded in 2013 by 2 billion euros and in 2014 by 3 billion. These exceedances are accomplished despite substantial incidental factors (e.g. telecom auction, the SNS Bank’s nationalisation, one-off resolution levy, higher recession-related dividend from Dutch Central Bank) which on balance will have a positive effect on the budget deficit (1 billion euros in 2013 and 2 billion euros in 2014).

These are the main figures of the Central Economic Plan 2013 (Centraal Economisch Plan 2013 (CEP)). The publication will become available in full on 13 March next, when CPB Director Teulings will provide further information on these projections during the press conference at the Nieuwspoort press centre in The Hague (at 9:30 a.m.) Members of the press who wish to attend the press conference are requested to register in advance by contacting CPB spokesmen Edwin van de Haar (e.r.van.de.haar@cpb.nl) or Dick Morks (morks@cpb.nl).

Spokesmen

Dick Morks +31 6 51681611 Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014 (28 February 2013)

International items
 2011201220132014
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

4.0

0.5

2 3/4

5

Import price goods (%)

4.9

2.6

-1 1/4

3/4

Export price competitors (%)

6.3

2.4

-1/2

3/4

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111.7

109

109

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.29

1.31

1.31

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

2.9

1.9

2.0

2.3

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2011201220132014
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.0

-0.9

-1/2

1

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

602.0

602.8

610

626

Private consumption (%)

-1.0

-1.5

-1 1/2

1/4

Public demand (%)

-0.6

-0.2

-1/4

1/2

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

10.2

-2.5

1/2

2 1/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.3

2.2

3 1/4

5

of which domestically
produced (%)

3.8

-0.3

2 1/2

3 3/4

re-exports (%)

4.7

4.5

4 1/4

6

Imports of goods (%)

4.1

3.4

2

4 1/2

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2011201220132014
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

1.4

0.6

-3/4

3/4

Price competitiveness (%)

0.9

1.9

1/2

1/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2.5

2 3/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2.8

2.8

1.7

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.2

1.1

1 1/2

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.8

1.8

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1.6

1 3/4

2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.1

2.2

2 1/4

2 3/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33500

33000

33000

33500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-2.5

-1 1/2

-3/4

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-2.5

-1 1/4

3/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2011201220132014
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16800

16845

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8879

8940

8970

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8380

8395

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

470

560

575

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.2

-1/2

0

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1.5

3/4

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

0.6

-1/4

1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.4

5.3

6 1/4

6 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6.4

7 3/4

7 3/4

Market sector
 2011201220132014
Production (%)

1.4

-1.8

-1/2

1 1/4

Labour productivity (%)

1.0

-1.4

1/2

1 1/2

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.4

-0.4

-1

-1/4

Price gross value added (%)

0.3

1.7

0

1 1/4

Real labour costs (%)

1.8

0.5

2 1/4

1 1/2

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

80.4

81 1/2

81 1/4

General government
 2011201220132014
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.5

-4.0

-3.3

-3.4

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.5

71.4

74.0

75.0

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.4

38.8

39.9

40.1

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Contacts

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Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more