November 1, 1998

2020: Integrated projections for Rotterdam port and industry; a second opinion

This paper provides a second opinion of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis on a report by the Rotterdam Port Authorities on spatial and economic developments in the Rotterdam Port in the period 1997-2020.

The research has been carried out at the request of the Project Group Mainport Development Rotterdam, which is currently investigating investment projects in the Rotterdam port area and at other locations in the south-west area of the Netherlands. In this study, the Rotterdam projections of future spatial and economic developments are compared to previous projections of the CPB and to historical developments in the Rotterdam Port Area. From this brief analysis some overall conclusions are drawn about the plausibility of the Port Authorities projections for the period considered. The main conclusion is that - from a welfare point of view - those projections do not form a solid base to judge future spatial and economic bottlenecks for the Port of Rotterdam. Especially the projections of the prosperous scenario must be considered as less plausible, as these combine favourable economic developments and market shares with a cautious productivity of land use. As a result, the projected demand for land even doubles the demand in the favourable period in the past (1985-1997).

Contacts

Taco van Hoek Read more
Martin Koning Read more
John Blokdijk Read more