December 16, 2009
AIECE general report; report submitted at the general meeting of 5-6 November 2009
The worst part of the financial crisis is behind us. Nevertheless, the fall in global output in 2009 will be the largest of the post-war period. As a result, unemployment and government deficits are rising steeply this year, while inflation will be very low.
Financial market support measures and expansionary macroeconomic policy have brought the steep output drop to an end and are leading to a tentative recovery of world output and world trade from the third quarter onwards.
This upswing will continue next year, provided that the gradual return to normalcy now taking place in financial markets holds. The uncertainty that surrounds future international developments remains high.
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