May 1, 2000

AIECE working group reports - spring 2000: World trade 2000-2001; World commodity prices 2000-2001

The Working Group on Commodity Prices deals in particular with the raw material markets.

Raw material prices will be generally higher this year. In terms of the HWWA-index, prices are expected to increase by around 20%. Prices of energy raw materials will jump nearly 30% and industrial commodities some 10%. Food and tropical beverages on the other hand will become cheaper; on average prices are expected to fall 3% this year.

In a historical comparison raw materials are still rather cheap. Even in nominal terms the HWWA-index is well below its 1990 level. Next year the overall index is expected to decrease by 4%. However, this decrease has to be fully written on account of crude oil prices, which are expected to weaken 10%. Excluding crude oil the index is forecast to rise 5%. Both industrial raw material prices and food and beverages prices will increase in 2001, respectively by 4 and 6%.


Wim Hulsman
Gerard van Welzenis

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