August 16, 2001

The demand for space till 2030 in two scenarios

As input for the preparation of the Fifth White Paper on Spatial Planning CPB has made calculations of spatial demand in the Netherlands until 2030.

The calculations are based on two scenarios with a high economic growth (Global Competition and European Coordination) from the CPB-publication : ' Economie en Fysieke Omgeving' (EFO), published in 1997. These scenarios are characterised by a high level of spatial demand and have been chosen in order to explore possible bottlenecks. The scenario period in EFO was 1996-2020. In this document the time horizon is extended to 2030. Only spatial demand for housing, industry and agriculture are taken into account.

Both scenario's show vigorous economic growth in the period 1996-2020. The structural rate of growth is 3% per annum, which corresponds with a doubling of production and income during this period. After 2020 economic growth slows down in view of the decreasing working population and employment. The declining employment is caused by a decrease in labour supply, which is the result of the ageing of the population and the high degree of participation of labour supply in 2020.

New spatial demand for housing is determined by the extension of housing stock, the replacement of demolished houses, the composition of newly built dwellings (e.g. rented or owner- occupied housing) and the size of these dwellings. In turn, these factors are influenced by demographic, social cultural trends and economic variables. Housing demand increases in the period 1996-2030 by between 1,8 and 2,2 million dwellings. New spatial demand for housing amounts to between 70,000 and 84,000 hectares. During the period 2020-2030 the annual increase in demand will gradually slow down due to the assumed economic and demographic development.

During 1998-2020 new spatial demand for the industry on formal industrial sites will amount to between 22,000 and 25,000 hectares. Owing to the decreasing economic growth and declining employment demand will hardly grow after 2020. Allowing for a surcharge for infrastructure and green space, the dismantlement of some industrial sites and the demand on non- formal sites, the new spatial demand could double.

Spatial demand for agriculture is particularly influenced by the general economic development , the European integration, agricultural policy, bio-technological development regarding the yields per hectare, food conversion, milk production etc. Agricultural production will need a much smaller area of land in both scenarios. The decrease in demand for land during 1996-2030 in this sector is between 200,000 and 400,000 hectares.

This publication is in Dutch.

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