February 1, 1999

Economic consequences of the millennium bug

Economische effecten van het Millenniumprobleem

Press release
Het CPB verwacht dat het millenniumprobleem geen merkbaar effect zal hebben op de macro-economische jaarcijfers, mits bedrijfsleven en overheid alles op alles zullen zetten om hun software millenniumbestendig te maken en mits zij noodvoorzieningen treffen om eventueel toch nog optredende productieverstoringen in 2000 snel het hoofd te bieden.

We are sorry, unfortunately there is no English translation of this page.

If well anticipated by firms and the government in the Netherlands as well as abroad, the millennium bug may have only minor negative economic effects. However, such an outcome is no absolute certainty. This paper therefore analyses some risks with respect to Y2K. In assessing these risks we have made various pessimistic assumptions.

The quantitative analysis distinguishes four components -domestic supply effects, initial domestic demand effects, foreign influence and structural effects- which all exert a separate influence on the ultimate economic consequences of Y2K. In a scenario in which all pessimistic assumptions occur simultaneously the result is a negative effect on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of at the most ¾ to 1% in the year 2000. Such an effect, however, will largely be compensated for by related positive effects after 2000.


Frans Suijker
Martin Vromans