September 11, 2001

EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries

Meer welvaart door de EU-uitbreiding

Press release
De uitbreiding van de Europese Unie met landen uit Midden-en Oost-Europa heeft een klein positief effect op de Nederlandse economie. Volgens modelberekeningen neemt ons Bruto Binnenlands Product (BBP) per hoofd van de bevolking op langere termijn met zo'n 0,15% toe door de uitbreiding.

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We focus on integration aspects that go beyond the reduction of formal trade barriers, namely accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. The economic implications for sixteen industries in several European countries are assessed by using WorldScan, a CGE model for the world economy.

The results suggest that the candidate member states will gain substantially from accession to the internal market, although some sectors in these countries will shrink. Most EU countries will experience small welfare increases. We also find that the internal market effects are large compared to the economic effects of removing formal trade barriers and migration.

Authors

Ruud de Mooij
Richard Nahuis

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