October 10, 2006

Focus on the track record of the short and medium term forecasts.

This report analyses the accuracy of CPB’s short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy in the period 1971-2005. Regularly, CPB compares its forecasts with the outcomes in order to learn from mistakes made and to illustrate the uncertainty around the projections.

In this report, we focus on the track record of the short-term forecasts for the current year and the year ahead published each year in the Macro Economic Outlook on the Third Tuesday in September in the period 1971-2005.  

In every accuracy report, we pay special attention to one or more specific issues. This time, we zoom in on the accuracy of nine economic outlooks for the medium term, published by CPB in the last 30 years.

This publication is in Dutch.




Johan Verbruggen