February 3, 2011

Forecasting public health expenditures in the Netherlands

This background document presents the forecasting methodology applied in the Netherlands for the medium-term health expenditure forecast of 2011-2015.

The model distinguishes several sub-sectors within healthcare, and decomposes health expenditure growth into four determinants, namely: demographic, epidemiologic and budgetary factors, and the residual. This decomposition provides insight into health expenditure allocation as well as its drivers. The model offers a tool for the analysis of potential budgetary implications of government policies. In particular, in the current application, we make forecasts under two alternative scenarios for policy intervention: no intervention and an increase in compulsory copayments. Important advantages of the proposed model are its limited data needs, transparency and practicality.

Contacts

Victoria Shestalova Read more
Paul Besseling Read more

Read more about