November 26, 2004

Four views on the Netherlands: Production, labour and sectoral structure in four scenarios until 2040

CPB: Forse welvaartsstijging is reëel perspectief voor de komende decennia

Press release
Deze scenariostudie geeft een kwantitatief beeld op macro- en bedrijfstakkenniveau tot 2040. De scenario's zijn een uitwerking van de in oktober 2003 door het CPB uitgebrachte studie 'Four Futures of Europe', waarin mogelijke toekomstbeelden voor Europa zijn beschreven.

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The download is a English summary of the Dutch Publication.

Dutch policymakers are confronted by several strategic challenges that carry great significance for the long-run economic perspectives. There is great uncertainty about the scale of future bottlenecks and about the economic conditions under which they will occur.

The scenarios for the Dutch economy contain a wide range of results for many variables. For instance, the cumulated growth of GDP per capita until 2040 varies from 30% to 120%. The scenarios with high growth are also characterised by more inequality and less concern for the environment.

Ageing has a negative effect on labour supply and employment growth and on the ratio of the active to the non-active population in all scenarios. An increase in participation, especially of women and older workers, may counterbalance these effects. Sectoral employment shares will shift strongly, particularly from agriculture and manufacturing to services and health care. This shift is a continuation of a process that has already been going on for decades.