May 1, 1999

Globalization, international transport and the global environment: four quantitative scenarios

This paper presents four quantitative scenarios simulated with the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan. The scenarios are constructed to study the effects of globalization on transport and the environment.

They contain different assumptions on the degree of globalization, technical progress, migration and energy policies. WorldScan focusses on long-term economic growth, trade and specialization patterns. It quantifies the economic content of the scenarios and the volume growth of energy and emissions between 1995 and 2050. The scenario outcomes show that emission growth quadruples with high economic growth without any energy-efficient technologies and environmental legislation. However, in an ecological scenario which combines energy-efficient technologies, environmental legislation and modest economic growth, global emissions hardly increase.

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