September 17, 2013

Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2014

CPB projects an economic growth of half a per cent for 2014

Press release
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) projects a decline in GDP of 1¼% for 2013 and a GDP growth of 1/2% for 2014. Unemployment in 2013 will rise by 150,000 people up to 620,000 (7%) and in 2014 to 685,000 (7½%). The budget deficit will be 3,2% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2014.

These projections are presented in CPB’s Macro Economic Outlook 2014, traditionally published every year on Prinsjesdag (the day of the King’s Speech, which sets out the main features of government policy for the coming year). This year’s CPB projections also include the Dutch Cabinet’s package of measures for 6 billion euros in additional spending cuts.

The Dutch economy in 2014 is projected to develop in a slightly less favourable direction than was estimated in the preliminary projections of last August. Projected economic growth (GDP growth) for 2014 now is adjusted downwards by ¼% to 1/2%, as is consumption, which is projected to decrease by 1% instead of 3/4%. These adjustments are the result of the additional spending cuts. There are three reasons why the macroeconomic impacts of these additional spending cuts will be only limited: because of a single reduction in the financial burden in 2013, the way the increase in financial burden (for 2014) is designed, and because it will take some time before the impacts become apparent. Median purchasing power in 2013 will decrease by 1¼% and in 2014 by ½%.

For 2013, the budget deficit is projected to amount to 3.2%, against 3.0% in last August’s projections. This is the result of the single reduction in financial burden in 2013. The budget deficit for 2014 is projected to be 3.3%.

In its Macro Economic Outlook 2014, CPB provides detailed information about current developments in the Dutch economy, also from an international perspective.

Spokesmen

Edwin van de Haar Read more
Johannes Hers Read more

Read the accompanying press release or the complete publication in Dutch.

Related:
Short-term forecasts September 2013

Macro Economic Outlook 2014 (only in Dutch), ISBN 978-90-1257-940-7,  price 27,50 euro, can be ordered from September 20, 2013 at:

Sdu Service Centre Publishers
www.sdu.nl
P.O. Box 20014
2500 EA The Hague
The Netherlands
Telephone : +31-70-3789880

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September 15, 2013

Trefzekerheid van CPB-ramingen in 2011-2013

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September 15, 2013

Schatting effect BTW-verhoging op inflatie

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September 17, 2013

Tekortreducerende maatregelen 2011-2017 (mev 2014)

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September 15, 2013

Vraag en antwoord over de begrotingsmultiplier

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September 15, 2013

CPBs short-term forecasts September 2013

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts. This is the third forecast of 2013, CPB's Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2014. CPB presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy in the years 2013 and 2014. MEV 2014 is only available in Dutch but you can download an English translation of chapter 1.
Main image

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014 (MEV 2014)

International items
 2011201220132014
Relevant world trade
(vol. %)

4.0

0.7

1 1/2

3 3/4

Import price goods (%)

5.1

2.7

-1 1/2

0

Export price competitors
(%)

6.3

4.1

1/4

1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111.7

105

103

Exchange rate
(dollar p euro)

1.39

1.28

1.32

1.32

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

1.9

1.9

2.4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2011201220132014
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth)
(%)

0.9

-1.2

-1 1/4

1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

599.0

599.3

602

613

Private consumption (%)

-1.1

-1.6

-2 1/4

-1

Public demand (%)

-0.6

-0.8

-1 1/4

1/2

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential
(%)

12.3

-2.9

-11

1 3/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.4

1.9

2 3/4

4 1/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

3.8

0.7

1

3 1/2

re-exports (%)

4.9

3.0

4 1/4

5

Imports of goods (%)

4.7

3.6

-1/4

4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2011201220132014
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

2.1

0.8

-1/2

1/2

Price competitiveness (%)

-0.2

2.4

1/2

3/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2.5

2 3/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2.8

3

1 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.1

1.3

1 1/2

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.7

1.8

1 3/4

1 1/2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1.6

1 1/2

1 1/2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.9

1.8

1 1/4

3 1/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33500

33000

32500

33500

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-2.4

-1 1/4

-1/2

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2011201220132014
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16795

16840

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8878

8950

9005

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8335

8320

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

469

615

685

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.2

-1

-1/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1.5

3/4

1/2

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

0.6

-1

-1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.4

5.3

7

7 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6.4

8 1/2

9 1/4

Market sector
 2011201220132014
Production (%)

1.4

-1.9

-1 3/4

1

Labour productivity (%)

1.0

-1.6

-1/2

1 3/4

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.5

-0.2

-1 1/4

-3/4

Price gross value added (%)

0.3

1.8

1/2

1 3/4

Real labour costs (%)

1.6

0.0

3/4

1 3/4

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

79.0

80.5

81 3/4

81 1/2

General government
 2011201220132014
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.3

-4.1

-3.2

-3.3

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.7

71.3

75.0

76.3

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.6

39.0

39.7

40.8

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2014.

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