October 31, 2005

Sickness absence over the business cycle

Gunstige conjunctuur leidt tot meer ziekteverzuim

Press release
Bij een gunstige economische ontwikkeling melden meer werknemers zich ziek. Een daling van de werkloosheid met 1%-punt leidt naar schatting tot een stijging van het ziekteverzuim met 0,25%-punt.

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Dick Morks

Like previous research, we find a procyclical relation. Measured by unemployment, the CPB employment barometer or the degree of vacancies, economic upswings go together with more sickness absence. We estimate the effects with both an error correction model for times series (1980-2003) as well as a fixed-effects model on quarterly industry data for the period 1995-2003.

We also show that some policy measures have lowered sickness absence and that changes in the composition of the workforce have tended to raise it. On balance, the structural level of sickness absence has decreased during the last ten to twenty years.

 This publication is in Dutch.


Hans Stegeman

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