An assessment of the Phillips curve over time: evidence for the United States and the euro area
Our main conclusion is that in the United States the Phillips curve for headline inflation has remained empirically relevant over the years while there are periods when its impact has been low. For measures of core inflation we find a declining Phillips curve. In the euro area the strength of the relationship differs per country and over time, but has overall been weak and volatile in the past three decades. For both the United States and the euro area countries, we find little evidence of the “anchored expectations"-hypothesis.
External author: Siem Jan Koopmans (VU)