Policy Seminar: Informing policy makers about future health spending: A comparative analysis of forecasting methods in OECD countries

NOTE: THIS SEMINAR IS ON A WEDNESDAY

Time: 13.00-14.00 hours
Location: CPB-office, Van Stolkweg 14, The Hague

Presentation: Roberto Astolfi (OECD)

Discussant: Esther Mot (CPB)

Language: English

Registration: Please register by sending an email to polinars@cpb.nl.

Abstract subject:
As continued growth in health spending places pressure on government budgets, forecasting health care expenditure growth and its long-term sustainability have risen to the top of the policy agenda in many OECD countries. This comparative analysis reviewed 25 models that were developed for policy analysis  in OECD countries by governments, research agencies, academics and international organisations. We observed that the policy questions that need to be addressed drive the choice of forecasting model and the model’s specification. By considering both the level of aggregation of the units analysed and the level of detail of health expenditure to be projected, we identified three classes of models: micro, component-based, and macro. Virtually all models account for demographic shifts in the population, while two important influences on health expenditure growth that are the least understood include technological innovation and health-seeking behaviour. The landscape for health forecasting models is dynamic and evolving. Advances in computing technology and increases in data granularity are opening up new possibilities for the generation of system of models which become an on-going decision support tool capable of adapting to new questions as they arise.

Policy seminars
CPB organises policy seminars for policy makers, researchers and other stakeholders. These policy seminars focus on policy implications. Policy seminars are held on Thursday from 1.00 pm. to 2.00 pm. Read here how to subscribe (or unsubscribe) to our alert service (CPB Calendar).

Seminars
CPB also organises seminars for researchers. During these seminars, always held on Tuesday from 1.00 pm. to 2.00 pm., academic papers are presented and discussed. Read here how to subscribe (or unsubscribe) to our alert service (CPB Calendar).