Seminar: Can the Dutch meet their own retirement expenditure goals?

Time: 13.00-14.00 hours
Location: CPB-office, Van Stolkweg 14, The Hague

Presentation: Jochem de Bresser (UvT)

Discussant: Mathijn Wilkens (CPB)

Language: English

Registration:  Please register by sending an email to seminars@cpb.nl.

Abstract subject
Population aging and poor performance of financial markets put the sustainability of pension arrangements in many Western countries under pressure. In order to investigate whether the Dutch population will be able to cope with possible cutbacks in the generosity of pensions, we analyze their preparedness for retirement in 2008, at the eve of the prolonged downturn that persists until today. In contrast to previous efforts, we disentangle the roles of variation in perceived needs and accumulated resources by comparing annuitized wealth from administrative data with self-reports of minimal and adequate expenditures during retirement. We take into account public pension rights and non-discretionary savings in occupational pension schemes by assuming that respondents will continue to live in the Netherlands until the age of 65 and will continue to work in their current job. In addition, we take into account third pillar pension rights, housing wealth and private savings. We find that in the aggregate the Dutch can expect to retire quite comfortably, meeting and exceeding both their minimal and adequate expenditure levels. However, both needs and resources vary widely across the sample and about a fifth cannot afford their minimal expenditures even if they would draw down housing wealth (preliminary!). Among the groups that are at risk are the self-employed, the divorced and the disabled. Current retirees are relatively well off.

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