February 25, 2019

CPB World Trade Monitor December 2018

The CPB World Trade Monitor shows that the volume of world trade decreased 1.7% in December, having decreased 1,8% in November (initial estimate -1.6%), and growth in 2018Q4 was -0.9% (1.3% in 2018Q3). Due to the US shutdown, no data on US import/export values in December are available. The 0.0% import/export volume growth for the US is a technical assumption.

Developments in global international trade and industrial production December 2018:

World trade volume decreased 1.7% month‐on‐month (growth was ‐1.8% in November, initial estimate ‐1.6%) and growth was ‐0.9% in 2018Q4 (1.3% in 2018Q3). Due to the US shutdown, no data on US import/export values in December are available. The 0.0% import/export volume growth for the US is a technical assumption.
World trade momentum was ‐0.9% (non‐annualised; 0.0% in November, unchanged from initial estimate).
World industrial production decreased 0.1% month‐on‐month (‐0.2% in November, unchanged from initial estimate) and increased 0.4% in 2018Q4 (0.4% in 2018Q3).
World industrial production momentum was 0.4% (non‐annualised; 0.5% in November, initial estimate 0.4%).

For questions. please contact wtm@cpb.nl.
Read also the CPB Background Document 'The CPB World Trade Monitor: technical description'.
In September 2016 (starting with the July 2016 monitor) the WTM base year has been moved from 2005 to 2010. Clarification of the procedure and its outcomes is given in the downloadable appendix (CPB Memo 'Change of base year WTM').

The release of the next monthly CPB World Trade Monitor is scheduled tentatively for 25 March 2019, 15:00 hours.

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