June 14, 2017

Forecast June 2017

The lights are green for the Dutch economy

Press release
The lights are green for the economy of the Netherlands; it is growing and employment is increasing, leading to a decrease in unemployment to 4.7%. The government budget will result in a surplus, for both 2017 and 2018 . Wage and price developments, however, are expected to lag behind. These are the conclusions by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, in its June projections 2017.
Main image

The economy is projected to grow by 2.4% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018, which compares favourably with the expected moderate structural growth. Consumer spending, investments and exports all contribute to this growth. Household consumption will benefit from an increase in disposable income. This increase is determined, particularly, by the increase in employment. Purchasing power is expected to increase, slightly, in both years. With regard to the rising investment levels, the housing market is still in the lead, and exports will profit from favourable international developments.

The stable economic growth will lead to addition employment. Unemployment thus is expected to decrease to 4.9% in 2017 and 4.7% in 2018. Government finances are healthy, with projected surpluses of 0.5% in 2017 and 0.7% in 2018. In combination with economic growth, this will result in a declining debt ratio, down to 55%.   

The improving economy will not yet resonate in every sector. Contract wages will increase by a projected 1.7% in 2017 and 2.0% in 2018. This means they lag behind the favourable developments in economic growth and employment. This may be explained by the more flexible labour market. Inflation (HICP) also lags behind and is projected to come to 1.4%, in both years.  The ECB’s purchasing policy appears to have only a limited impact on inflation.

The green lights for the Dutch economy may turn to yellow, if international uncertainties change into setbacks. Examples of such uncertainties within Europe include the results from the Brexit negotiations and the financial stability of certain southern European countries. Outside Europe, the course steered by the United States and China’s economic developments also remain important factors.

Spokesmen

Foto Suzanne van Gils
Suzanne van Gils +31 6 21560776 Read more
Marlies Kolthof Read more

This forecast is published in CPB Policy Brief 2017/08 'Juniraming 2017' (only in Dutch).

Fan Charts June 2017

The figures present fan charts around the KMEV 2018 point forecasts for GDP growth, HICP inflation, unemployment and general government financial balance.

The solid line represents data realizations (2012-2016) and the KMEV 2018 point forecasts for 2017 and 2018. Around the central path the figures present a fan of confidence intervals:

  • 30% confidence interval from the 35th to 65th percentile, dark blue area
  • 60% confidence interval from the 20th to 80th percentile, dark blue + blue area
  • 90% confidence interval from the 5th to 95th percentile, dark blue + blue + light blue area

The probability is thus 30% that the outcome will fall in the dark blue area and the probability is 10% that the outcome will fall outside the fan. In other words, the fan is a graphical representation of the likelihood of the various outcomes. The solid line represents the most likely outcome and outcomes are more likely when they are closer to the solid line.

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Contacts

Foto Adam Elbourne
Adam Elbourne +31 6 27208196 Read more
June 14, 2017

CPB's short-term forecasts June 2017

The lights are green for the economy of the Netherlands; it is growing and employment is increasing, leading to a decrease in unemployment to 4.7%. The government budget will result in a surplus, for both 2017 and 2018 . Wage and price developments, however, are expected to lag behind.

Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2018

>This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2018.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2015-2018

International items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Relevant world trade volume goods
and services (%)

3.8

2.9

3.8

4.0

Export price competitors (goods and
services, non-commodities, %)

8.0

-3.1

0.9

1.3

Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)

51.9

43.3

50.8

50.6

Exchange rate (dollar per euro)

1.11

1.11

1.08

1.09

Long-term interest rate the
Netherlands (level in %)

0.7

0.3

0.5

0.5


GDP and demand (volume)
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth, %)

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.0

Consumption households (%)

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.0

Consumption general government (%)

0.2

1.0

1.1

1.3

Capital formation including
changes in stock (%)

6.2

5.4

5.5

2.7

Exports of goods and services (%)

5.0

3.4

3.9

4.1

Imports of goods and services (%)

5.8

3.7

4.2

4.3


Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Price gross domestic product (%)

0.1

1.0

1.2

1.5

Export price goods and services
(non-energy, %)

0.7

-0.7

0.8

1.1

Import price goods (%)

-5.1

-4.5

4.2

0.6

Inflation, harmonised index of
consumer prices (hicp, %)

0.2

0.1

1.4

1.4

Contractual wages market sector (%)

1.3

1.5

1.7

2.0

Purchasing power, static, median,
all households (%)

1.1

2.6

0.3

0.2


Labour market
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Labour force (%)

0.4

0.4

0.9

1.1

Active labour force (%)

1.0

1.3

2.0

1.3

Unemployment
(in thousands of persons)

614

538

444

427

Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)

6.9

6.0

4.9

4.7


Market sector
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Production (%)

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.4

Labour productivity (hours, %)

1.6

0.2

0.6

1.2

Employment (hours, %)

1.2

2.6

2.5

1.1

Compensation per hour (%)

0.2

0.9

2.8

2.8

Labour share in enterprise income
(level in %)

77.1

76.9

77.8

78.0


Other items
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Private savings (% of disposable
household income)

0.2

-0.1

0.2

0.5

Current-account balance
(level in % GDP)

8.5

7.7

7.2

7.1


Public sector
  2015 2016 2017 2018
General government financial balance
(% GDP)

-2.0

0.4

0.5

0.7

Gross debt general government
(% GDP)

65.1

62.2

58.5

55.4

Taxes and social security contributions
(% GDP)

37.7

39.0

39.3

39.2

Contacts

Foto Albert van der Horst
Albert van der Horst +31 6 52526165 Read more
Foto Debby Lanser
Debby Lanser +31 6 29419089 Read more

Contacts

Foto Albert van der Horst
Albert van der Horst +31 6 52526165 Read more
Foto Debby Lanser
Debby Lanser +31 6 29419089 Read more

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