Accuracy of CPB's forecasts for the years 1971-2003

Regularly, CPB compares its forecasts with the outcomes in order to learn from mistakes made and to illustrate the uncertainty around the projections. In this report, we focus on the track record of the short-term forecasts for the current year and the year ahead published each year in the Macro Economic Outlook on the third Tuesday in September. We pay special attention to (1) forecast errors in recent years; (2) the effect of preliminary data adjustments of Statistics Netherlands on the accuracy; (3) the way errors in the external assumptions influence the accuracy of the Dutch core variables' forecasts; (4) criteria to test the unbiasedness and efficiency of CPB's short-term forecasts.

Besides, we clarify the way in which CPB makes its short-term forecasts. Finally, we list the various sources of forecast errors.

This publication is in Dutch.