December 21, 2010

The CPB leading indicator revised

CPB has used a system of leading indicators as one of its instruments for short-term forecasts for twenty years. This paper describes the revised composition of the CPB leading indicator.

On the basis of 29 variables, the indicator gives information for the next twelve months of the cyclical development in general and turning points in particular.

An important innovation is the point estimation of economic growth in addition to the qualitative description of the business cycle. The CPB system of leading indicators constructs the GPD-indicator from subindicators for both economic demand (consumption, investments and exports) and economic supply (production in industry, construction and services).

The publication is in Dutch.


Sander Muns