December 21, 2010
The CPB leading indicator revised
CPB has used a system of leading indicators as one of its instruments for short-term forecasts for twenty years. This paper describes the revised composition of the CPB leading indicator.
On the basis of 29 variables, the indicator gives information for the next twelve months of the cyclical development in general and turning points in particular.
An important innovation is the point estimation of economic growth in addition to the qualitative description of the business cycle. The CPB system of leading indicators constructs the GPD-indicator from subindicators for both economic demand (consumption, investments and exports) and economic supply (production in industry, construction and services).
The publication is in Dutch.
Nederlandse financiële stelsel kan schokken opvangen in tijden van economische onzekerheidInstrumentarium voor waardeketenonderzoekHigh energy costs have little impact on corporate profitsCPB: belastingen zijn geen wondermiddel om gedrag bij te sturenPurchasing power restored through wage growth, but more people living below the poverty line