The growth potential of the Dutch economy until 2011
Structurele groei 2% per jaar tot 2011
The main factors behind economic growth are the structural growth rate of labour supply, changes in the partial equilibrium level of unemployment, and the growth rate of labour productivity.
Labour supply (in full-time equivalent jobs) grows by 0.3% per annum until 2011. This is a lower growth rate than in previous years, which relates to ageing. A decrease of the partial equilibrium rate of unemployment has a small positive effect on economic growth until 2011.
Quantitatively, the most important factor is the increase of labour productivity (1.7% per annum). This is slightly higher than in previous periods, the main cause is the rise of the capital intensity. Also, the higher growth rate of labour productivity in the non-market sector contributes to the higher overall growth rate.
Key words: Economic growth, potential growth, output gap