June 12, 2006

The growth potential of the Dutch economy until 2011

Structurele groei 2% per jaar tot 2011

Press release
Voor de periode 2008-2011 is de verwachte structurele groei van de Nederlandse economie 2% per jaar. De grootste bijdrage aan de groei komt uit de toename van de arbeidsproductiviteit met 1,7% per jaar, terwijl het arbeidsaanbod (in arbeidsjaren) gemiddeld met slechts 0,3% per jaar toeneemt.

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Dick Morks

The main factors behind economic growth are the structural growth rate of labour supply, changes in the partial equilibrium level of unemployment, and the growth rate of labour productivity.

Labour supply (in full-time equivalent jobs) grows by 0.3% per annum until 2011. This is a lower growth rate than in previous years, which relates to ageing. A decrease of the partial equilibrium rate of unemployment has a small positive effect on economic growth until 2011.

Quantitatively, the most important factor is the increase of labour productivity (1.7% per annum). This is slightly higher than in previous periods, the main cause is the rise of the capital intensity. Also, the higher growth rate of labour productivity in the non-market sector contributes to the higher overall growth rate.

Key words: Economic growth, potential growth, output gap