July 30, 2007

Post-2012 climate policy scenarios

The cost and effectiveness of climate policy in Europe depend on the international post-2012 climate regime. Crucial are the stringency of the policy and the size of the climate coalition, e.g. the willingness of regions outside Europe to implement a climate policy.

This report analyzes four alternative policy scenarios. These four scenarios are characterised along two dimensions: the sense of urgency expressed by the policy goal, and the willingness to resolve the climate problem through concerted action. This analysis provides a background for identifying the best mitigation options, both in the Netherlands and the EU. Only if all major countries become actively involved in emissions abatement before 2020, the EU 2 degrees climate target is feasible. In smaller coalitions the costs to coalition members and the environmental ineffectiveness tend to increase.



M.G.J. den Elzen
Ton Manders
Veenendaal. P.J.J.
Gerard Verweij