July 16, 2001

A scenario for health care expenditures 2003-2006

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and the Social and Cultural Planning Office (SCP) with the cooperation of the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) have constructed a scenario for the growth of healt care expenditure for the years 2003-2006, the period following the next general elections.

In this scenario growth is based upon developments in demand and supply of health care and upon assumptions about the effect of new medical-technological developments. For the health care sector an average annual growth rate of health care expenditure of 5.9% is predicted. This number is split-up in an average annual volume growth rate of 2.5% and an average annual health care price growth rate of 3.3%. Considering the uncertainty about the influence of technology a sensitivity-analysis has been carried out.

This publication is in Dutch.


K. Folmer
E. van Gameren
I. Woittiez
J. Timmermans