August 27, 2014

Three scenarios for European economic recovery

This background document describes in more detail how the three scenarios for European economic recovery that are presented in Roads to Recovery (Gelauff et al., 2014) have been constructed.
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To ensure consistency of the scenarios use was made of the National Institute Global Economic Model (NiGEM) of the British National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR). At our request, NIESR supplied us with a baseline that was used - with some modifications - to represent Moderate Recovery. Section 2 of this background document presents the characteristics of the Moderate Recovery baseline. Section 3 indicates how the two other scenarios, Accelerating and Delayed Recovery, have been obtained from this baseline. The final section summarizes the characteristics of the three scenarios, reflects on the construction process and indicates two areas that deserve further attention.

See also CPB Book 'Roads to recovery' and the accompanying  Background Document 'The Dutch labour market during the Great Recession'.


Paul Veenendaal