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October 3, 2008

Evaluating CPB's published GDP growth forecasts; a comparison with individual and pooled VAR based forecasts

We compare the accuracy of our published GDP growth forecasts from our large macro model, SAFFIER, to those produced by VAR based models using both classical and Bayesian estimation techniques.

September 23, 2008

Investigating uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts by stochastic simulation

Wanted: world trade prophet.

September 16, 2008

Decomposition of GDP-growth in some European Countries and the United States

This paper shows two alternative methodologies for decomposition of GDP growth.

April 22, 2008

Are houses overvalued in the Netherlands?

This is an update of an analysis which CPB conducted three years ago to identify the factors that determine how the price of a house in the Netherlands develops.

April 18, 2008

Is de huizenprijs in Nederland overgewaardeerd?

This document is in Dutch, memorandum 200 is the English version of this document.

January 15, 2008

Decomposition of GDP growth in European countries; different methods tell different stories

The composition of economic growth can be analysed in two different ways. In the 'traditional method' for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports.