Table Main Economic Indicators 2016-2019
The economy is flourishing
|Strong continuation of GDP growth||2.9||2.8||2.5|
|Unemployment to lowest level since 2001||4.9||3.9||3.5|
|Increase of VAT pushes up inflation||1.3||1.6||2.4|
|Purchasing power increases due to lower income tax||0.3||0.4||1.3|
|Budgetary surplus despite additional spending||1.2||0.7||0.9|
|Government debt decreases further||57||53||49|
In 2019, the economy will continue to grow at a higher-than-average pace, as was also the case in 2017 and 2018. This is partly because of household consumption, government spending, exports, and corporate and housing investments. Unemployment, in 2019, will continue to decrease, to the historically low level of 3.5%. Higher labour costs and an increase in the lower VAT tariff will have their effect on a higher inflation rate. Particularly fiscal measures in the Coalition Agreement will nevertheless cause mean static purchasing power to increase by 1.3% in 2019 (0.4% in 2018). Despite additional government spending, the economic boom will still lead to a budgetary surplus; the government debt will decrease to 49%.
The downward risks for the economy have increased. Trade conflicts that could lead to a trade war have become starker. The risk of a hard Brexit is increasing by the day. Economic policy in Italy and a slowdown in growth in a number of emerging economies, such as Turkey, all carry a certain amount of uncertainty for the eurozone.
For the latest figures, click here .
This cMEV introduces a new way of presenting developments in purchasing power. There now is a greater focus on the distribution of purchasing power effects. In March of this year, when publishing its Central Economic Plan (CEP), CPB already indicated that the traditional way of presenting purchasing power figures created too much fixation on adjusting median static purchasing power. Therefore, the new presentation not only shows the median purchasing power development for 2019—in these projections equalling 1.3%—but also shows the range that surrounds it. According to the current projections, purchasing power shows a positive development for nearly all households in 2019, with peaks of over 4%, thus showing a sizeable distribution around the median development. In addition, there will also be a more balanced distribution of income categories in the purchasing power presentation.
To the background document (only in Dutch) on the new purchasing power presentation .
To the general explanation of CPB’s purchasing power presentation (only in Dutch).
Read the accompanying press release.
|Relevant world trade volume goods and services (%)||3.6||4.9||3.4||4.0|
|Export price competitors (goods and services, non-commodities, %)||-3.5||2.1||0.8||1.3|
|Crude oil price (dollar per barrel)||44.3||55.0||72.5||72.2|
|Exchange rate (dollar per euro)||1.11||1.13||1.19||1.17|
|Long-term interest rate the Netherlands (level in %)||0.3||0.5||0.6||0.7|
|Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth, %)||2.2||2.9||2.8||2.5|
|Consumption households (%)||1.1||1.9||2.7||2.3|
|Consumption general government (%)||1.3||1.1||2.1||2.7|
|Capital formation including changes in stock (%)||-6.7||4.4||4.8||3.8|
|Exports of goods and services (%)||1.7||5.3||3.0||4.2|
|Imports of goods and services (%)||-2.0||4.9||3.3||4.8|
|Price gross domestic product (%)||0.5||1.2||2.0||2.5|
|Export price goods and services (non-energy, %)||-1.4||1.9||1.2||1.5|
|Import price goods (%)||-4.5||4.2||2.2||1.2|
|Inflation, harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp, %)||0.1||1.3||1.6||2.4|
|Compensation per hour private sector (%)||0.7||1.2||2.8||3.9|
|Contractual wages private sector (%)||1.5||1.6||2.0||2.9|
|Purchasing power, static, median, all households (%)||2.6||0.3||0.4||1.3|
|Labour force (%)||0.4||0.8||1.1||1.0|
|Active labour force (%)||1.3||2.1||2.1||1.4|
|Unemployment (in thousands of persons)||538||438||355||320|
|Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)||6.0||4.9||3.9||3.5|
|Employment (hours, %)||2.0||1.9||2.1||1.4|
|Labour share in enterprise income (level in %)||73.6||73.4||73.6||74.3|
|Labour productivity private sector (per hour, %)||0.2||0.9||0.9||1.1|
|Private savings (% of disposable household income)||3.6||2.9||3.0||2.8|
|Current-account balance (level in % GDP)||8.1||10.5||10.1||9.9|
|General government financial balance (% GDP)||0.0||1.2||0.7||0.9|
|Gross debt general government (% GDP)||62.0||57.1||52.8||49.2|
|Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP)||38.4||38.7||38.7||39.0|
|Gross government expenditure (% GDP)||44.0||42.9||42.7||42.4|