Seminar

Hybrid seminar: Health Care Spending Growth Has Slowed: Will the Bend in the Curve Continue?

On Thursday March 16th 2023, Joe Newhouse (Harvard) will give a presentation titled: "Health Care Spending Growth Has Slowed: Will the Bend in the Curve Continue?." To attend this seminar, please send an e-mail to Simone Pailer (S.Pailer@cpb.nl). You will be registered at the reception or will receive a Teams-invitation via Outlook.

Date
March 16, 2023
Time
13:00 - 14:00
Location
Room "Braamzaal", Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, and online (Teams). To attend this seminar, please send an e-mail to Simone Pailer (S.Pailer@cpb.nl). You will be registered at the reception or will receive a Teams invitation via Outlook
Presentation
Joe Newhouse (Harvard)
Discussant
Rudy Douven (CPB)
Working language
English

Over 2009-2019 the seemingly inexorable rise in health care’s share of GDP markedly slowed, both in the US and elsewhere. To address whether this slowdown represents a reduced steady-state growth rate or just a temporary pause we specify and estimate a decomposition of health care spending growth. The post-2009 slowdown was importantly influenced by four factors. Population aging increased health care’s share of GDP, but three other factors more than offset the effect of aging: a temporary income effect stemming from the Great Recession; slowing relative medical price inflation; and a possibly longer lasting slowdown in the nature of technological change to increase the rate of cost-saving innovation. Looking forward, the post-2009 moderation in the role of technological change as a driver of growth, if sustained, implies a reduction of 0.8 percentage points in health care spending growth; a sizeable decline in the context of the 2.0 percentage point differential in growth between health care spending and GDP in the 1970 to 2019 period.

Contacts