December 19, 2012

CPBs short-term forecasts December 2012

The economy is shrinking, budget deficit to 3.3% in 2013

Press release
During the third quarter of 2012, the Dutch economy shrunk by 1% (the strongest decline since 2009) and also for the fourth quarter no growth is projected. This trend is expected to continue for the first half of 2013 due to the low level of consumer confidence, spending cuts and stringent credit conditions.

Go straight to the data.

Since the first quarter of 2011, the Dutch economy has shrunk during four of the six quarters and hardly grew in the remaining two. In actual fact, it has been shrinking for the past 18 months and is not projected to recover even slightly before the second half of 2013. This according to the December projections for the Dutch economy for the years 2012 and 2013, published today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB Policy Brief 2012/07, (only in Dutch)).

The Dutch economy has been estimated to have shrunk by 1% in 2012, and for 2013 a decline of ½% is projected. This will cause unemployment to rise to 6% in 2013. General government finances are also affected by the shrinking economy. This year’s EMU deficit is expected to come to 3.8% of GDP, and for 2013 to 3.3%. Thus, despite the considerably weakened economy, the EMU balance will improve, as a result of sizeable spending cuts and increases in financial burden.

The downward adjustment to the projected EMU balance for 2013 from the projections in CPB’s Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) 2013, published last September, is fully due to the lower growth projection and accompanying lower tax revenues.

The eurozone is in recession, with an expected economic downturn of ½% for 2012 and ¼% for 2013. Despite several measures to increase the structural strength, the performance of the Dutch economy is disappointing when set against that of other countries in the eurozone. On the positive side, European financial markets seem to have entered calmer waters.

Spokesmen

Edwin van de Haar Read more
Dick Morks Read more
Johannes Hers Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2010-2013

International items
 2010201120122013
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

11.3

4.0

1/4

2 1/2

Import price goods (%)

7.3

4.9

2 3/4

-3/4

Export price competitors (%)

7.9

6.3

2 3/4

-1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

79.5

111.3

112

112

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.33

1.39

1.29

1.30

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

2.9

2.0

2.2

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2010201120122013
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.6

1.0

-1

-1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

588.7

602.0

604

609

Private consumption (%)

0.3

-1.0

-1 1/2

-1 1/2

Public demand (%)

0.3

-0.6

-1

-1/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-5.2

10.2

-3 1/4

-3

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

13.5

4.3

2 1/2

3

of which domestically
produced (%)

9.7

3.8

-1 3/4

1 3/4

re-exports (%)

17.0

4.7

6 1/4

4

Imports of goods (%)

12.2

4.1

2

1 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2010201120122013
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

4.3

1.4

1/4

-1

Price competitiveness (%)

2.3

0.8

2 1/2

1

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.3

2.3

2 1/2

2 3/4

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

0.9

2.5

2 3/4

2 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.1

1.2

1 1/4

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

1.2

0.8

2

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.0

1.4

1 3/4

2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.7

2.1

3 1/4

2 1/2

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

33000

33000

33000

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-1.2

-2 1/4

-1 1/2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-0.5

-0.9

-2

-1 1/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2010201120122013
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16615

16693

16755

16820

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8748

8746

8880

8935

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8358

8357

8410

8410

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

390

389

470

525

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.4

0.7

-1/4

-1/2

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

0.0

1 1/2

3/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

-1.0

0.0

3/4

0

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.5

4.4

5 1/4

6

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

5.4

6 1/2

7 1/4

Market sector
 2010201120122013
Production (%)

1.1

1.4

-2

-1/2

Labour productivity (%)

2.9

1.0

-1 1/2

1

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

-1.8

0.4

-1/2

-1 1/2

Price gross value added (%)

2.0

0.3

1 1/4

-1/4

Real labour costs (%)

-0.3

1.8

2

2 3/4

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

78.7

81 3/4

83 1/4

General government
 2010201120122013
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.1

-4.5

-3.8

-3.3

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

63.1

65.5

71.0

72.9

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.8

38.4

38.9

40.1

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2013

 Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2013

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Contacts

Johannes Hers Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more