March 20, 2012

Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2012

CPB: moderate economic recovery after 2012

Press release
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) forecasts that the Dutch economy will perform moderately in the period 2012-2015 due to a combination of rising unemployment and low (household) consumption as a consequence of higher pension contributions, lower pension payments, restrictive government policy and falling house prices.
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This is published today in the publication Central Economic Plan 2012 (in Dutch).

Through a number of small adjustments, amounting to a total of EUR 200 million, the rounded-off budget deficit (EMU balance) for 2013 is forecast to be 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), one tenth percent higher when compared to the draft figures published on 1 March 2012.

The current economic recession will continue until the second half of this year; and GDP is expected to shrink by ¾ of a percent in 2012. A slight recovery is forecast for the following years: a growth in GDP of 1¼ percent in 2013, and of 1½ percent in both 2014 and 2015. During this period, median purchasing power will decline and unemployment will rise, peaking at 545,000 in 2013; while the national debt (EMU deficit) is forecast to rise to 76% of GDP in 2015. However, the cautious recovery of world trade and the positive trend visible in the German economy offers the Dutch export market a glimmer of hope. Despite this, the size of the economy is not expected to exceed that of the first quarter of 2008 until 2014. Not since the Second World War has the Netherlands experienced a six year period in which there has, on balance, been no growth of the economy. 

In addition to potential budgetary adjustments in the Netherlands, the factor causing the greatest uncertainty is the development of the European debt crisis. In the last few months, Europe has been teetering on the edge of a financial abyss. Currently, the situation appears slightly more stable, primarily due to the intervention of the European Central Bank; by means of its Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO) banks can borrow money cheaply from the ECB. However, this has not solved the underlying problem of the weak European financial sector, a problem which could impact negatively on the real economy.

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Edwin van de Haar Read more
Dick Morks +31 6 51681611 Read more

Read the accompanying press release.

Related publications:

The Central Economic Plan 2012, ISBN 978-90-1257-6-444,  can be ordered from April 2, 2012 at:

Sdu Service Centre Publishers (www.sdu.nl)
P.O. Box 20014
2500 EA The Hague
The Netherlands
Telephone : +31-70-3789880
Price: 35 euro

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March 20, 2012

Presentatie "Centraal Economisch Plan 2012"

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) forecasts that the Dutch economy will perform moderately in the period 2012-2015 due to a combination of rising unemployment and low (household) consumption as a consequence of higher pension contributions, lower pension payments, restrictive government policy and falling house prices.

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Edwin van de Haar Read more
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March 20, 2012

Herziening van de WWB-raming voor het Centraal Economisch Plan 2012

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Foto Gijs Roelofs
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March 20, 2012

CPBs short-term forecasts March 2012: moderate economic recovery after 2012

Four times a year CPB publishes short-term forecasts of the Dutch economy and the world economy. This is the first forecast of 2012, CPB's Central Economic Plan 2012. With this publication, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis presents its analyses and forecasts of both the Dutch and worldwide economy.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release (CEP 2012).

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2015

International items
 20112012201320142015
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

4.0

-1 3/4

4 1/2

6

6

Import price goods (%)

5.5

2 1/2

1/4

0

-1/4

Export price competitors (%)

5.8

3 1/2

-1/4

1/2

1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111

111

111

111

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.29

1.29

1.29

1.29

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

2.9

2.3

2.7

3.0

3.3

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 20112012201320142015
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.2

-3/4

1 1/4

1 1/2

1 1/2

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

603.6

609

627

647

669

Private consumption (%)

-0.9

-1/2

1/2

1/2

1/4

Public demand (%)

0.6

-1

0

-1/4

-1/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

7.2

-3 1/4

7 1/2

6 3/4

5 1/2

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.3

-1 3/4

3 3/4

6 1/4

6 3/4

of which domestically
produced (%)

1.8

-1/2

3 1/2

4

4

re-exports (%)

6.3

-3

4

8 1/4

9 1/4

Imports of goods (%)

3.7

-1 3/4

3 1/4

5

5 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 20112012201320142015
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

1.7

1/2

1/4

-1/4

-1/4

Price competitiveness (%)

-0.7

2 1/4

-3/4

0

0

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2 1/4

1 3/4

2

2 1/4

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2 1/4

1 1/2

1 3/4

2

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.4

1 3/4

1 1/2

1 3/4

1 3/4

Price of national
expenditure (%)

1.2

2 1/4

1 3/4

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1 3/4

1 1/2

2

2 1/4

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.5

3 1/4

1 1/2

2 1/2

2 1/2

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33000

33000

33000

34000

34500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.4

-2 1/4

-1/2

-1 1/2

-2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-1 3/4

0

-1/2

-1/2

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 20112012201320142015
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16690

16765

16835

16835

16835

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8890

8915

8915

8930

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8395

8370

8375

8435

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

500

545

535

495

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

-1/4

0

1/4

3/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1 3/4

1/4

0

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

1/2

-1/4

0

3/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.5

5 1/2

6

6

5 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6 3/4

7 1/4

7 1/4

6 1/2

Market sector
 20112012201320142015
Production (%)

1.8

-1 1/2

1 3/4

2

2

Labour productivity (%)

1.5

-3/4

2 1/2

2 1/4

1 1/4

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.2

-3/4

-3/4

0

1/2

Price gross value added (%)

0.5

3/4

1

1

1/2

Real labour costs (%)

2.0

2 1/4

1/4

1 1/2

2

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.6

81 1/2

79 1/4

78 1/2

79

General government
 20112012201320142015
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.0

-4.6

-4.6

-4.1

-3.3

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.6

70.2

73.0

75.0

76.0

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.2

38.8

38.6

39.0

39.3

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2013

 Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2013

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