Seminar: The Urban Economics of Retail
Tuesday March 22nd, Ioulia Ossokina (CPB) will present "The Urban Economics of Retail".
Time: 13.00-14.00 hours
Location: CPB-office, Van Stolkweg 14, The Hague
Presentation: Ioulia Ossokina (CPB)
Discussant: Marc Francke (UvA)
Registration: Please register here
This paper develops a spatial model of shopping centres, describing their structure, as well as the rent and vacancy for each store. We estimate the model using data for individual retail stores in 300 shopping centres in the Netherlands for the period 2004-2015. This period covers the Great Recession, the subsequent decline of private consumption and the rise in internet shopping. We show that rents decrease by 10 to 15% and vacancy rates increase by a factor 1.2 with each 100 meter extra distance from the shopping centre’s midpoint. Concentrated land ownership internalizes positive cross-store externalities and commands therefore 20% higher rents. During the Great Recession retail rents declined and vacancies increased simultaneously, in particular at the edges of the shopping centres, as predicted by our model. We use the model to evaluate the land rent equivalence condition for commercial and residential use at the edges of the shopping centres. In some locations, a transfer from commercial to residential land use is profitable, in particular after the Great Recession.
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